tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Sacramento via Chicago: arrives on time 26%

  1. 17:02 IAH → 20:24 ORD
    AA 4426 · American, flown by Republic · 3h 22m · 77% on time, 8.1% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:12 ORD → 23:38 SMF
    AA 1094 · American · 4h 26m · 41% on time, 5.8% cancelled

Total trip 8h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (8.1% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (5.8% are) and within 15 minutes (41%).
Total trip8h 36mIAH 17:02 to SMF 23:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.