tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → New Orleans via Chicago: arrives on time 42%

  1. 17:02 IAH → 20:24 ORD
    AA 4426 · American, flown by Republic · 3h 22m · 77% on time, 8.1% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:20 ORD → 23:47 MSY
    AA 3896 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 27m · 62% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (8.1% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip6h 45mIAH 17:02 to MSY 23:47, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.