tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Columbus → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 27%

  1. 21:14 CMH → 21:44 ORD
    AA 4430 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 30m · 72% on time, 7.1% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:34 ORD → 00:14 PHX +1 day
    AA 2786 · American · 3h 39m · 55% on time, 11.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Columbus). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (7.1% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (11.1% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip5h 59mCMH 21:14 to PHX 00:14, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.