tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Hebron via Chicago: arrives on time 79%

  1. 07:57 JFK → 10:05 ORD
    AA 4450 · American, flown by Republic · 3h 08m · 93% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 10m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:15 ORD → 15:41 CVG
    AA 4143 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 26m · 84% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 7h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 145 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 10m layover.
Arrives on time79%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip7h 44mJFK 07:57 to CVG 15:41, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.