tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Indianapolis → Los Angeles via New York: arrives on time 39%

  1. 16:45 IND → 19:10 JFK
    AA 4456 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 23m · 70% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:00 JFK → 23:24 LAX
    AA 117 · American · 6h 24m · 74% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 9h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip9h 39mIND 16:45 to LAX 23:24, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.