tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Memphis → Philadelphia via Chicago: arrives on time 28%

  1. 18:04 MEM → 20:23 ORD
    AA 4457 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 20m · 54% on time, 10.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 19m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:42 ORD → 00:55 PHL +1 day
    AA 490 · American · 2h 14m · 56% on time, 12.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 34 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 19m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (10.3% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (12.5% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip5h 52mMEM 18:04 to PHL 00:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.