tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Memphis → Austin via Chicago: arrives on time 19%

  1. 18:04 MEM → 20:23 ORD
    AA 4457 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 20m · 54% on time, 10.3% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:16 ORD → 23:59 AUS
    AA 935 · American · 2h 43m · 45% on time, 6.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection51%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 49% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time19%First flight not cancelled (10.3% are) × connection made (51%) × second flight not cancelled (6.1% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip5h 55mMEM 18:04 to AUS 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.