tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Memphis → Baltimore via Chicago: arrives on time 37%

  1. 18:04 MEM → 20:23 ORD
    AA 4457 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 20m · 54% on time, 10.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:25 ORD → 00:33 BWI +1 day
    AA 4663 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 08m · 79% on time, 4.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (10.3% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (4.5% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip5h 29mMEM 18:04 to BWI 00:33, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.