tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Memphis → Chicago via New York: arrives on time 29%

  1. 16:26 MEM → 20:14 LGA
    AA 4461 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 48m · 59% on time, 11.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:23 LGA → 23:29 ORD
    AA 2057 · American · 3h 01m · 55% on time, 8.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (11.5% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (8.3% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip6h 58mMEM 16:26 to ORD 23:29, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.