tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Raleigh/Durham via Chicago: arrives on time 37%

  1. 18:02 MSP → 20:10 ORD
    AA 4465 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 08m · 80% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:56 ORD → 23:59 RDU
    AA 2167 · American · 2h 03m · 58% on time, 5.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (5.5% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip4h 57mMSP 18:02 to RDU 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.