tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Baltimore via Chicago: arrives on time 40%

  1. 18:02 MSP → 20:10 ORD
    AA 4465 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 08m · 80% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:00 ORD → 23:59 BWI
    AA 3866 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 59m · 59% on time, 3.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection77%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 23% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (77%) × second flight not cancelled (3.6% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip4h 57mMSP 18:02 to BWI 23:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.