tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → New Orleans via Chicago: arrives on time 46%

  1. 18:02 MSP → 20:10 ORD
    AA 4465 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 08m · 80% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:20 ORD → 23:47 MSY
    AA 3896 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 27m · 62% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 35 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection83%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 17% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (83%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip5h 45mMSP 18:02 to MSY 23:47, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.