tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Indianapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 58%

  1. 18:02 MSP → 20:10 ORD
    AA 4465 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 08m · 80% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 2h 20m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:30 ORD → 00:51 IND +1 day
    AA 4363 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 21m · 77% on time, 11.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection94%The first flight arrived more than 95 minutes late on 6% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 20m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (94%) × second flight not cancelled (11.1% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip5h 49mMSP 18:02 to IND 00:51, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.