tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Richmond via Chicago: arrives on time 35%

  1. 18:02 MSP → 20:10 ORD
    AA 4465 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 08m · 80% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 12m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:22 ORD → 00:39 RIC +1 day
    AA 4698 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 17m · 50% on time, 6.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection83%The first flight arrived more than 27 minutes late on 17% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 12m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (83%) × second flight not cancelled (6.7% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip5h 37mMSP 18:02 to RIC 00:39, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.