tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Norfolk → Detroit via New York: arrives on time 32%

  1. 18:11 ORF → 19:48 LGA
    AA 4471 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 37m · 60% on time, 12.0% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:44 LGA → 22:49 DTW
    AA 4598 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 05m · 67% on time, 7.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (12.0% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (7.8% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip4h 38mORF 18:11 to DTW 22:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.