tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Norfolk → Dallas-Fort Worth via New York: arrives on time 42%

  1. 11:38 ORF → 13:13 LGA
    AA 4473 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 35m · 81% on time, 3.2% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:00 LGA → 17:05 DFW
    AA 1056 · American · 4h 05m · 65% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Norfolk). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (3.2% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip6h 27mORF 11:38 to DFW 17:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.