tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Chicago via Richmond: arrives on time 85%

  1. 07:50 LGA → 09:32 RIC
    AA 4486 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 42m · 95% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 28m layover in Richmond (RIC) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:00 RIC → 13:28 ORD
    AA 4500 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 28m · 86% on time, 1.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 20 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 103 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 28m layover.
Arrives on time85%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (1.5% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip6h 38mLGA 07:50 to ORD 13:28, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.