tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Martha's Vineyard via New York: arrives on time 81%

  1. 09:59 DCA → 11:25 LGA
    AA 4491 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 26m · 85% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 2h 20m layover in New York (LGA) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 13:45 LGA → 15:01 MVY
    DL 5822 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 16m · 90% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 50 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 20m layover.
Arrives on time81%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip5h 02mDCA 09:59 to MVY 15:01, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.