tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Kansas City via Chicago: arrives on time 44%

  1. 19:12 RDU → 21:06 ORD
    AA 4492 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 54m · 58% on time, 8.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 29m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:35 ORD → 00:19 MCI +1 day
    AA 3695 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 44m · 69% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 44 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 29m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (8.8% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip6h 07mRDU 19:12 to MCI 00:19, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.