tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Hebron via Chicago: arrives on time 34%

  1. 19:12 RDU → 21:06 ORD
    AA 4492 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 54m · 58% on time, 8.8% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:00 ORD → 00:30 CVG +1 day
    AA 4776 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 30m · 74% on time, 7.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (8.8% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (7.8% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip5h 18mRDU 19:12 to CVG 00:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.