tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Nashville via Raleigh/Durham: arrives on time 84%

  1. 06:30 LGA → 08:14 RDU
    AA 4494 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 44m · 98% on time, 9.6% cancelled
  2. 2h 26m layover in Raleigh/Durham (RDU) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 10:40 RDU → 11:15 BNA
    WN 684 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 95% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 56 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 26m layover.
Arrives on time84%First flight not cancelled (9.6% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (95%).
Total trip5h 45mLGA 06:30 to BNA 11:15, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.