tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Norfolk via Washington: arrives on time 30%

  1. 16:51 BNA → 19:55 DCA
    AA 4495 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 04m · 68% on time, 8.1% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:47 DCA → 21:53 ORF
    AA 5662 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 05m · 59% on time, 6.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (8.1% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (6.7% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip4h 01mBNA 16:51 to ORF 21:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.