tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Columbus via New York: arrives on time 37%

  1. 15:20 STL → 18:55 LGA
    AA 4509 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 35m · 71% on time, 8.2% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:53 LGA → 21:53 CMH
    AA 4680 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 00m · 67% on time, 12.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (8.2% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (12.9% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip5h 33mSTL 15:20 to CMH 21:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.