tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Richmond → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 85%

  1. 06:00 RIC → 07:34 ORD
    AA 4512 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 34m · 96% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:22 ORD → 10:06 MSP
    AA 4162 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 46m · 91% on time, 1.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Richmond). Times are local. Both flew on 22 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time85%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (1.5% are) and within 15 minutes (91%).
Total trip5h 08mRIC 06:00 to MSP 10:06, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.