tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Richmond → New York via Chicago: arrives on time 78%

  1. 06:00 RIC → 07:34 ORD
    AA 4512 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 34m · 96% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 26m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:00 ORD → 14:38 JFK
    AA 4356 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 38m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 161 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 26m layover.
Arrives on time78%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip8h 38mRIC 06:00 to JFK 14:38, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.