tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Des Moines → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 84%

  1. 05:00 DSM → 06:39 ORD
    AA 4519 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 39m · 90% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 2h 23m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 09:02 ORD → 11:03 PHX
    UA 2225 · United · 4h 01m · 95% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 8h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Des Moines). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection94%The first flight arrived more than 53 minutes late on 6% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 23m layover.
Arrives on time84%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (94%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (95%).
Total trip8h 03mDSM 05:00 to PHX 11:03, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.