tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Miami via Washington: arrives on time 82%

  1. 06:30 JFK → 07:59 DCA
    AA 4538 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 29m · 81% on time, 3.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 56m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:55 DCA → 12:38 MIA
    AA 1173 · American · 2h 43m · 88% on time, 1.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 71 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 56m layover.
Arrives on time82%First flight not cancelled (3.5% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (1.3% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip6h 08mJFK 06:30 to MIA 12:38, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.