tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Tampa via Washington: arrives on time 75%

  1. 06:30 JFK → 07:59 DCA
    AA 4538 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 29m · 81% on time, 3.5% cancelled
  2. 2h 16m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:15 DCA → 12:40 TPA
    AA 2852 · American · 2h 25m · 81% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 91 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 16m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (3.5% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip6h 10mJFK 06:30 to TPA 12:40, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.