tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Buffalo via Washington: arrives on time 70%

  1. 06:30 JFK → 07:59 DCA
    AA 4538 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 29m · 81% on time, 3.5% cancelled
  2. 2h 52m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:51 DCA → 12:15 BUF
    AA 5104 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 26m · 81% on time, 8.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 127 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 52m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (3.5% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (8.8% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip5h 47mJFK 06:30 to BUF 12:15, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.