tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Rochester via Washington: arrives on time 62%

  1. 06:30 JFK → 07:59 DCA
    AA 4538 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 29m · 81% on time, 3.5% cancelled
  2. 2h 00m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:59 DCA → 11:21 ROC
    AA 5374 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 22m · 69% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 4h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 75 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 00m layover.
Arrives on time62%First flight not cancelled (3.5% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip4h 51mJFK 06:30 to ROC 11:21, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.