tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nantucket → Philadelphia via Washington: arrives on time 47%

  1. 10:45 ACK → 12:32 DCA
    AA 4543 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 47m · 79% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:30 DCA → 14:38 PHL
    AA 5474 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 08m · 65% on time, 2.3% cancelled

Total trip 3h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 33 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (2.3% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip3h 53mACK 10:45 to PHL 14:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.