tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nantucket → Washington via Philadelphia: arrives on time 37%

  1. 15:38 ACK → 17:28 PHL
    AA 4545 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 50m · 75% on time, 9.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 57m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:25 PHL → 20:41 DCA
    AA 5019 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 16m · 54% on time, 16.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 33 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 72 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 57m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (9.1% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (16.3% are) and within 15 minutes (54%).
Total trip5h 03mACK 15:38 to DCA 20:41, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.