tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nantucket → Washington via New York: arrives on time 50%

  1. 14:32 ACK → 16:00 LGA
    AA 4546 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 28m · 77% on time, 14.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:20 LGA → 18:58 DCA
    AA 4773 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 38m · 76% on time, 6.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 26m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection81%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 19% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (14.0% are) × connection made (81%) × second flight not cancelled (6.5% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip4h 26mACK 14:32 to DCA 18:58, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.