tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Minneapolis via Washington: arrives on time 79%

  1. 06:00 SDF → 07:50 DCA
    AA 4549 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 49m · 91% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 2h 40m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:30 DCA → 12:20 MSP
    AA 3796 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 50m · 81% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 21 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 115 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 40m layover.
Arrives on time79%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip7h 20mSDF 06:00 to MSP 12:20, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.