tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Rochester via New York: arrives on time 78%

  1. 06:00 DCA → 07:31 JFK
    AA 4551 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 30m · 94% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 49m layover in New York (JFK) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 09:20 JFK → 10:53 ROC
    DL 5330 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 33m · 87% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 1h 49m layover.
Arrives on time78%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip4h 53mDCA 06:00 to ROC 10:53, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.