tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → San Francisco via New York: arrives on time 76%

  1. 06:00 DCA → 07:31 JFK
    AA 4551 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 30m · 94% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 59m layover in New York (JFK) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 09:30 JFK → 12:52 SFO
    AS 227 · Alaska · 6h 22m · 82% on time, 2.3% cancelled

Total trip 9h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 29 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 1h 59m layover.
Arrives on time76%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (2.3% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip9h 52mDCA 06:00 to SFO 12:52, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.