tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Hebron via New York: arrives on time 71%

  1. 06:00 DCA → 07:31 JFK
    AA 4551 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 30m · 94% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:40 JFK → 10:56 CVG
    AA 4408 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 16m · 81% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time71%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip4h 56mDCA 06:00 to CVG 10:56, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.