tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Martha's Vineyard via New York: arrives on time 90%

  1. 06:00 DCA → 07:31 JFK
    AA 4551 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 30m · 94% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 43m layover in New York (JFK) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 11:14 JFK → 12:38 MVY
    DL 5859 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 24m · 94% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 133 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 43m layover.
Arrives on time90%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (94%).
Total trip6h 38mDCA 06:00 to MVY 12:38, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.