tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Philadelphia via Chicago: arrives on time 37%

  1. 15:57 RDU → 17:41 ORD
    AA 4563 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 44m · 60% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:48 ORD → 21:59 PHL
    AA 2443 · American · 2h 18m · 59% on time, 7.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (7.3% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip6h 09mRDU 15:57 to PHL 21:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.