tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 44%

  1. 15:57 RDU → 17:41 ORD
    AA 4563 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 44m · 60% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:51 ORD → 20:39 PHX
    AA 866 · American · 3h 45m · 64% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 7h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip7h 39mRDU 15:57 to PHX 20:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.