tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Martha's Vineyard → Washington via New York: arrives on time 62%

  1. 13:51 MVY → 15:11 LGA
    AA 4570 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 20m · 85% on time, 6.8% cancelled
  2. 2h 09m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:20 LGA → 18:58 DCA
    AA 4773 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 38m · 76% on time, 6.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 38 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 84 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 09m layover.
Arrives on time62%First flight not cancelled (6.8% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (6.5% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip5h 07mMVY 13:51 to DCA 18:58, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.