tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Martha's Vineyard → Boston via Washington: arrives on time 38%

  1. 17:30 MVY → 19:15 DCA
    AA 4572 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 45m · 56% on time, 18.6% cancelled
  2. 3h 15m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:30 DCA → 23:59 BOS
    AA 4051 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 29m · 58% on time, 15.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection94%The first flight arrived more than 150 minutes late on 6% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 15m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (18.6% are) × connection made (94%) × second flight not cancelled (15.7% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip6h 29mMVY 17:30 to BOS 23:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.