tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Martha's Vineyard → Boston via Washington: arrives on time 34%

  1. 17:30 MVY → 19:15 DCA
    AA 4572 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 45m · 56% on time, 18.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 25m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:40 DCA → 22:19 BOS
    AA 4382 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 41m · 67% on time, 8.1% cancelled

Total trip 4h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 40 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 25m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (18.6% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (8.1% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip4h 51mMVY 17:30 to BOS 22:19, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.