tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Martha's Vineyard → Boston via Washington: arrives on time 38%

  1. 12:22 MVY → 13:59 DCA
    AA 4574 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 37m · 67% on time, 2.3% cancelled
  2. 3h 01m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:00 DCA → 18:47 BOS
    AA 3207 · American · 1h 47m · 43% on time, 2.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 38 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 136 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 01m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (2.3% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (2.1% are) and within 15 minutes (43%).
Total trip6h 25mMVY 12:22 to BOS 18:47, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.