tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Martha's Vineyard → Philadelphia via Washington: arrives on time 59%

  1. 12:22 MVY → 13:59 DCA
    AA 4574 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 37m · 67% on time, 2.3% cancelled
  2. 2h 41m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:40 DCA → 17:47 PHL
    AA 5248 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 06m · 66% on time, 1.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 0 of the last 56 days, too few to list among the best connections.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 116 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 41m layover.
Arrives on time59%First flight not cancelled (2.3% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (1.5% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip5h 24mMVY 12:22 to PHL 17:47, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.