tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Martha's Vineyard → Philadelphia via Washington: arrives on time 32%

  1. 12:22 MVY → 13:59 DCA
    AA 4574 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 37m · 67% on time, 2.3% cancelled
  2. 3h 19m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:18 DCA → 18:32 PHL
    AA 5406 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 14m · 39% on time, 10.2% cancelled

Total trip 6h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 33 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 154 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 19m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (2.3% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (10.2% are) and within 15 minutes (39%).
Total trip6h 10mMVY 12:22 to PHL 18:32, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.