tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Martha's Vineyard → New York via Washington: arrives on time 44%

  1. 12:22 MVY → 13:59 DCA
    AA 4574 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 37m · 67% on time, 2.3% cancelled
  2. 3h 27m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:26 DCA → 18:57 LGA
    AA 4685 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 31m · 55% on time, 13.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 162 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 27m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (2.3% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (13.7% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip6h 35mMVY 12:22 to LGA 18:57, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.