tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Martha's Vineyard → New York via Washington: arrives on time 35%

  1. 12:22 MVY → 13:59 DCA
    AA 4574 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 37m · 67% on time, 2.3% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:54 DCA → 16:29 JFK
    AA 4781 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 35m · 62% on time, 5.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (2.3% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (5.4% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip4h 07mMVY 12:22 to JFK 16:29, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.