tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Martha's Vineyard → New York via Washington: arrives on time 55%

  1. 12:22 MVY → 13:59 DCA
    AA 4574 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 37m · 67% on time, 2.3% cancelled
  2. 3h 01m layover in Washington (DCA) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 17:00 DCA → 18:39 JFK
    DL 5713 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 39m · 67% on time, 7.2% cancelled

Total trip 6h 17m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection91%The first flight arrived more than 91 minutes late on 9% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 01m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (2.3% are) × connection made (91%) × second flight not cancelled (7.2% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip6h 17mMVY 12:22 to JFK 18:39, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.