tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Charleston → New York via Washington: arrives on time 21%

  1. 16:15 CHS → 17:59 DCA
    AA 4584 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 44m · 58% on time, 9.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 59m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:58 DCA → 21:30 JFK
    AA 4474 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 32m · 50% on time, 27.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 21 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 74 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 59m layover.
Arrives on time21%First flight not cancelled (9.5% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (27.3% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip5h 15mCHS 16:15 to JFK 21:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.